Computer Outlook For the Several Years
Posted by Wade Burchette at 10:27 AM General
To be sure, the future of comuting is very difficult to predict. Everything can change rapidly. But computer technology does not go from idea to production overnight. That process takes years. So what are the computing giants planning in the future?
Some trends are developing. Low-power CPU's is going to be more important than better performing one. The computer graphics and the CPU are poised to become one chip. A new audio/video cable standard called DisplayPort will emerge. 64-bit computing will be the standard. And Blu-Ray will finally become universally accepted.
More low-power CPU's
The green revolution is not going away. There is too much money to be had from going green for it to die. Still, getting the same output for less energy is a very good thing. It saves money. Intel and AMD are both working on making their processors more energy-efficient. For a home with just one computer, it is not that big of a deal. But imagine having an office with hundreds of computers. The savings add up quickly. What is rarely thought about is the cost for cooling required for computers. Again, in a house with one computer, the heat from a computer is not a big deal. But in offices, energy-efficient computers run cooler meaning lower AC costs. The savings can be substantial.
The fact is, most CPU's today are overkill for what they are used for. Only a small minority of people need all the extra processing power of upper-end CPU's. When all you do is browse the interent, compose emails, and do general office programs, you don't need all the extra power of a CPU.
Also, low-power CPU's are better for notebook computers. Better battery life is what everyone wants. Battery technology will not have a major breakthrough anytime soon, so having a computer that uses less energy is where the extra battery life is going to come from.
The trick is to have low-power CPU's have equal or greater performance than the CPU's which are not low-power. That day will come and our electricity bills will be less.
Fusing the Computer Graphics With the CPU
AMD bought ATI because they wanted ATI's knowledge of graphic chips. The idea was to put the two processors on one chip to lower computer costs and energy costs even more. Intel is also trying this, although they are way behind in graphic chip technology. And so is NVidia. Just one problem with NVidia -- they do not make a CPU. NVidia is thinking about buying a company that does make CPU's just so they won't be behind.
Graphic chips are very good at math. The graphics processor does not have to be able to do a lot of everything. Therefore, it can specialize and it does specialize in math. In contrast, the CPU is general purpose, meaning it has to do a little bit of everying, which means it has to make some sacrifices in performance somwhere. The graphics in games require a lot of math to process. The benefits of putting the graphics on the CPU will also extend to programs that are heavy on math, like audio encoding, video encoding, and physics calculations.
The Rise of DisplayPort
DisplayPort is a video cable standard between a computer and a monitor. The goal of DisplayPort is to be an open standard, which meant that anyone who uses it does not have to patent royalty fees to any other company. DisplayPort can do everything HDMI can do and more. However, HDMI is not going to go anywhere anytime soon because so many devices already use HDMI. It is likely DisplayPort won't replace the old analog VGA standard for computer monitors either. At least, not anytime soon. The VGA standard is good enough and cheap because it is a mature technology.
DisplayPort has all of the powerhouse companies behind it. That alone will ensure that DisplayPort will get a fighting chance to succeed. The idea of paying less money on royalties means some companies will start pushing DisplayPort over HDMI. It won't be a quick transition, but DisplayPort is a name you will need to know in the future when considering what HDTV or monitor to buy.
Goodbye 32-bit Computers; Long Live 64-bit
Microsoft has stated that Windows 7 is the last operating system to be 32-bit. 64-bit versions of Windows are already gaing mass acceptance.
A 32-bit computer can only support 232 bytes of memory, or 4 gigabytes. The CPU's from both AMD and Intel have the ability to support 240 under certain circumstances, but this only applied to servers and affected performance a little. The theoretical limititation of a 64-bit CPU is 264 bytes, although current CPU's cut that limit short. Already some programs need more than 4 gigabytes of memory, making 64-bit computers a must.
64-bit computers also have other advantages. Math operations done by the CPU are more efficient, which results in a boost in performance. The 64-bit CPU's from AMD and Intel also have a number of other tweaks that result in gains in performance.
64-bit operating systems can run 32-bit programs. Operating systems have built-in features that make this possible. Just because your computer is 64-bit does not mean your old programs won't work. However, 64-bit versions of Windows no longer support 16-bit software. So few 16-bit programs exists anymore that Microsoft decided against supporting it. There are 3rd party solutions that allow you to run 16-bit programs, so all is not lost is your absolutely must use that program from 1983.
Eventually Blu-Ray Will Become Mainstream
It is a simple fact, Blu-Ray movies have not taken off like the Blu-Ray Disc Association (BDA) and its members wanted it to. There are several reasons for this. Mostly, people just don't see the need to upgrade. Their DVD's look good-enough, they work, and they know how to use it. Second, Blu-Ray can be confusing. I have been asked several times what Blu-Ray really is. People knew what HD DVD was, but it lost the format war. Blu-Ray doesn't have the DVD name, so it doesn't have the familarity factor on its side. Finally, the economy is affecting sales. When money is tight, people are thinking: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Blu-Ray is a luxury.
But the price of Blu-Ray players is coming down. Eventually people are going to replace their DVD players. Slowly Blu-Ray will become a standard.
But don't expect to see Blu-Ray in your computer anytime soon. Only computers designed around entertainment will have Blu-Ray drives. Why should companies spend the extra money on a Blu-Ray drive for the computer when very few people will need or want it? DVD adoption on the computer was slow. Blu-Ray adoption on the computer will be equally as slow.